Hi,

This newsletter is a reflection of many of the conversations I’ve had with my peers, industry professionals, and artists alike over the past few months.

One of the general sentiments shared is that it’s genuinely a weird time for the music industry - people are confused, frustrated, angry, and optimistic all at the same time.

Let's get into it below.

This newsletter highlights:

Let's dive in ⬇️

Before diving in, I want to preface that I’m in no way complaining.

It would be easy to read this newsletter and think I’m just whining about something I can’t control. Wahh the music industry is unfair. Wahh it’s hard.

In reality, I moreso thought it’d be worth sharing what’s been a consistent theme in conversations with my peers, industry professionals, and artists.

In a way, I think many of us are thinking the same thing but no one is really talking about it…many are kind of just carrying on and pretending like everything is fine.

In reality, the music industry is in a strange place. Generally speaking, it’s gotten really really hard for emerging artists to break and that difficulty has had a ripple effect on the entire industry.

As a general thesis, as recently as 1-2 years ago, there felt like more levers or “moves” that could predictably grow an artist’s career. By no means were they guaranteed, but they were reliable enough that you could build a campaign around them and have a general sense of what moved the meter. In some ways, industry professionals felt like they had more control of growing an artist’s career.

For example, at one point DSP support was the thing. An editorial add on the right Spotify or Apple could have a meaningful impact on an artist’s career. Getting your song added to Rap Caviar could legitimately move the meter in a significant way. We could watch the daily streams double or triple and hold for a while, and if the song was good, the algorithm would take it from there. When editorial was THE thing, getting in touch with those editors was challenging but there was a strategy to it. If you had those relationships or the data to support your pitch, you had a shot and a path.

At another point it was blogs / websites - ie A Fader premiere, a Complex feature, a Pigeons & Planes co-sign, etc. Those outlets had audiences that actually listened to what got covered, and a write-up would ripple into playlists, other press, show opportunities, etc. Now…I’m in no way saying those outlets don’t matter anymore (I actually believe written content is going to make a comeback) but it certaintly doesn’t have the same impact on artist’s audience growth (whether that’s measured in streaming numbers, social growth, owned audience, etc).

There was also content distribution, for example posts on big Instagram pages - this was a huge part of my work in digital marketing and something I LOVED focusing on. Essentially called “seeding”, I loved the strategy involved in what pages made sense for that artist audience, what piece of content was strongest, coming up with the title, caption, etc.

On more than one occasion, I ran campaigns where the right post on the right big Instagram account (a meme page, a culture account, a music discovery page with a few million followers, etc) literally doubled an artist's Instagram following within 2 days and caused a massive consumption spike. All from one post. For a period of time, that was the whole strategy.

Then there were the partners - collaborating with VEVO, Rockstar Games, etc. A concert in Fortnite could meaningfully lift streams. An activation with one of these companies could help move the meter.

Now? It feels like everyone is throwing shit at the wall and the only thing I keep seeing or hearing move the meter (at least in hip-hop and R&B) is hoping a piece of content goes viral on Instagram or TikTok.

“Just make content and keep posting”.

Mannnn if I had a dollar for every time I heard that, I’d have a condo in Tribeca and another in Miami lol. These days, the music industry feels like the wild wild west.

I continue hearing more and more conversations of artists and peers throwing everything they have at a song or album (playlisting, seeding, interviews, TikTok campaign, ads, etc) and it just simply not moving the meter or showing meaningful growth (or if it does, it’s slower than they would’ve liked).

Now…back to my earlier point, this newsletter isn’t meant to complain or even sound depressing. I’m just sharing the general sentiment I’m hearing from people along with what I’m observing myself. And for the record, I think it’s an exciting time for the industry in many ways - there is lots of opportuntiy and I’m hopeful the industry will revert back to a lot of things that I personally find important.

On some level, success was always out of people’s control but there was more influence. More ability to make things shake and see an impact.

Now, I’m watching as teams throw everything they have at a rollout and not make a dent (or smaller dent than they’d like). Without sounding dramatic, it fucking sucks. I know the industry is cyclical but it’s genuinely sad that the industry I loved and admired for so long has evolved into what it currently is. That it’s this difficult for artists to get their music heard.

I think there’s probably a few reasons why this is happening.

What's left is…ugh, I hate that I’m saying this but it’s real….what’s left is TikTok, which is one of the only things that still reliably impacts being able to grow a song. And even TikTok isn't what it used to be. The rewatch-value update this year cut distribution for anything people don't loop, which means the bar for a clip to travel is higher than it's ever been. So you're basically playing a lottery with fewer winning tickets and calling it a strategy because there's nothing else to call it lol.

It’s also funny in a way…we’re all spending all of this money, energy, and time to create content that lives on social media platforms we don’t own or control and are at the mercy of the algorithm. Most of the time artists don’t even know who their real fans are.

This is the part almost nobody says publicly because it's uncomfortable and it sounds like complaining.

So fuck it…I’ll say it lol.

Most music company org charts were built around channels. There's a DSP relations team, a digital marketing team, a radio team, a publicity team, a creative team, etc. Each of those departments existed because it moved the needle or contributed in a meaningful way, and each person in it was measured on their department’s contribution to breaking artists.

So what happens when the impact of those departments weaken? All of those people are still asked to justify their value while becoming harder to show. Not because they got worse at their job but because in many ways the job became disconnected from the outcome. And the honest answer, "my contribution doesn't work like it used to," isn't an answer you can say so people say "we need more content" instead, because that's the only lever anyone can still pull LOL.

That's where a lot of the fear comes from. Roles have already collapsed and layoffs happen in waves. And if you're sitting on a channel that's visibly losing impact, you can feel the clock even if nobody's said anything.

But underneath the fear is something sadder - the reason most people got into this business was the feeling of being part of an artist's journey from nothing to something and being able to contribute. To help them achieve success and live out their dreams.

That feeling used to show up a few times a year if you were on a good team and lucky. Now it shows up so rarely that a lot of people I talk to can't remember the last time they felt it. Many folks I talk to are considering leaving music because it just isn’t what it used to be for them.

Sadly, the artist side is its own kind of brutal.

Let’s start with touring, which was a huge topic online last week. There was a lot of discourse about tours getting canceled because the artist couldn't make the math work.

The economics of touring are brutal - the average ticket is now around $144, up from $82 in 2020. On the surface, that might sound like artists are making more but they're actually not because a tour's biggest costs are fixed.

Production, core crew, trucking, insurance, etc. Those cost roughly the same whether you play a 500-cap or a 5,000-cap. Then you add agent commission, management commission, business manager, support acts, per diems, and travel that costs far more than it did a few years ago.

Let’s remember that gross is not the same thing as net. An artist can sell 70% of a room and still lose money on the night. Stadiums are fine but the middle…the artists doing 1,500-cap rooms with real production are getting crushed.

So more tours get cancelled and the average independent artist just doesn’t have the economic means to tour - the most human and personal way fans have to experience the music and connect with the artist becomes harder.

As a result, artists cancel tours and shows and stick to building their fanbase online.

Now add streaming, which as we all know…pays what it pays. If you're not at scale, it's very difficult to generate meaningful income. Truthfully, most artists don’t even realize that streaming is literally a game with its own rules and if you don’t play by those rules it’s difficult to see any kind of success.

Now add everyone’s favorite word: content.

Artists are expected to be content machines which can quickly feel like a full-time job on top of the actual job of making music.

And again…the part that makes it all feel a little insane: all of that content, all of that time and energy and money, is being spent on creating content to live on platforms the artist doesn't own. The reach depends on an algorithm that changes whenever that company feels like it. The account can get flagged, restricted, or deleted with no explanation and no appeal.

So the artist is squeezed on live performances, squeezed on streaming, working a second job on content, and doing all of it on social media properties they don’t own.

Phew…okay, I’m in no way trying to shit on the music industry, but if we’re going to say all of this aloud…it’s worth actually talking about everything.

While the above is true, it’s also important to zoom out for a second because the music industry is constantly evolving.

DJs and radio had the power - if you couldn't get played, you basically didn't exist.

Then digital came and blogs had it. Hype Machine, Nah Right, 2DopeBoyz, Pitchfork. A blog premiere was legit a career event.

Then blogs faded and playlists had it, and for about five years the whole industry was reverse-engineering how to get on RapCaviar.

Then influencers had it, when a few dozen creators using your sound was worth more than any playlist.

Then content platforms broadly, and now TikTok specifically.

A few things stand out when you compare the eras next to each other.

1) The cycles are getting shorter. Radio's era lasted decades while blogs got about eight years. Playlists got less than that. Influencer-era got maybe three before saturation. TikTok is already showing wear.

2) Every single one of those was in somebody else's control. In every era, the artist's job was to figure out what the door was and shape themselves to fit through it. When the door moved, they started over.

Which begs the question and the entire point of this whole article:

Where do we go from here?

How do artists actually grow over the next 12 to 24 months?

What does working in this industry look like in 2 years?

I definitely don't have the answer but what I do know is I still have love for this game and care deeply about it.

I have ideas of where I think things can go…

I know what you're thinking - Mike is about to say "own your audience." Haha yes, that's in here. But I think that phrase has become a slogan people say without acting on, so let me try to be more specific than that.

1) From "breaking" to engaging

For the mid-level and above artists (or artists with some sort of fanbase), I think there’s a chance that focusing on growth actually becomes deprioritized and the emphasis becomes how to engage those existing fans.

Right now everyone is focused on trying to grow their existing base:

I think for that level artist, unless they aggressively release music and put out a lot, they genuinely may not grow their audience. The world is too saturated, listeners are too overstimulated, and seeing real impact is getting harder and harder. In this scenario, it becomes about finding ways to own, engage, and understand your current base to further monetize them.

In this scenario, it flips almost all of the industry benchmarks on its head. Instead of new followers, more streams, etc it becomes about data collection, re-engagement campaigns, testing products, creating experiences, etc

2) More human

As our feeds become more AI-flooded, maybe the algorithm becomes more driven by taste. Like…actual humans with actual credibility telling you what to listen to.

Almost like the blog era (in terms of influence) but with specific people.

So who are those humans?

DJs. Or niche curators with small, loyal audiences. Newsletter writers. Small podcasts. YouTubers who actually review music. Discord communities. Scene leaders in specific cities.

In this scenario, artists who build real relationships with 20 humans who have taste may outperform the artists optimizing for 20 different platforms. Not because the humans have bigger reach but because their reach converts. When someone with credibility says "listen to this," the people who trust them actually listen, and that's worth more than a million impressions from people who scrolled past.

Practically, this means making a list of the 20 humans who matter in your lane, and treating them the way labels used to treat radio programmers. Know their names. Know what they like. Send them things before they're public. Don't ask for anything for six months.

3) Giving fans different types of experiences

As the touring middle class becomes more challenging, maybe artists look for other IRL ways to engage with their fans.

Less tours and more experiences - for example, hosting work-out classes where fans can attend, creating their own book clubs, doing pop-ups, etc.

4) Knowing who your fans are

This is the big one - almost everything in this industry is fragmented.

Spotify for Artists knows one thing while Meta knows another and the merch store has its own set of data. Almost nobody wants to take the time to put them together, which means nobody can tell you what actually working or who the real fans are.

It’s a real problem, and it's also one of the biggest needs in music right now.

You don't need to be technical, you just need to be the person who insists on a baseline before every campaign, who tracks one number per tactic, and who writes down what happened after. Within six months you'll know more about what actually works.

5) Playing the longer game

The treadmill of a single every six weeks and content every day exists because the algorithm demands it but the artists I talk to who seem the least exhausted are the ones who picked one game and stopped trying to win all of them at once.

I wrote about this a few weeks ago. Streaming is a game. Direct-to-fan is a game. Live is a game. Sync is a game. They reward completely different behavior, and trying to play all four is how you end up posting five times a day, touring at a loss, and wondering why nothing sticks. Pick one and let everything else serve it.

Overall

I try to keep in mind that the fun (hopefully) isn't gone…it just changed. Maybe it takes longer now and happens less often but it’s still there in different ways.

I'd be curious if this resonated with you - feel free to respond if it did.

Hopefully this was helpful on your journey.

Thanks for reading, until next time.